Detection of infectious disease outbreaks in twenty-two fragile states, 2000-2010: a systematic review.

Fragile states are home to a sixth of the world's population, and their populations are particularly vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks. Timely surveillance and control are essential to minimise the impact of these outbreaks, but little evidence is published about the effectiveness of existing surveillance systems. We did a systematic review of the circumstances (mode) of detection of outbreaks occurring in 22 fragile states in the decade 2000-2010 (i.e. all states consistently meeting fragility criteria during the timeframe of the review), as well as time lags from onset to detection of these outbreaks, and from detection to further events in their timeline. The aim of this review was to enhance the evidence base for implementing infectious disease surveillance in these complex, resource-constrained settings, and to assess the relative importance of different routes whereby outbreak detection occurs.We identified 61 reports concerning 38 outbreaks. Twenty of these were detected by existing surveillance systems, but 10 detections occurred following formal notifications by participating health facilities rather than data analysis. A further 15 outbreaks were detected by informal notifications, including rumours.There were long delays from onset to detection (median 29 days) and from detection to further events (investigation, confirmation, declaration, control). Existing surveillance systems yielded the shortest detection delays when linked to reduced barriers to health care and frequent analysis and reporting of incidence data.Epidemic surveillance and control appear to be insufficiently timely in fragile states, and need to be strengthened. Greater reliance on formal and informal notifications is warranted. Outbreak reports should be more standardised and enable monitoring of surveillance systems' effectiveness

Updated estimate of the duration of the meningo-encephalitic stage in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis

Background: The duration of the stages of HAT is an important factor in epidemiological studies and intervention planning. Previously, we published estimates of the duration of the haemo-lymphatic stage 1 and meningo-encephalitic stage 2 of the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the absence of treatment. Here we revise the estimate of stage 2 duration, computed based on data from Uganda and South Sudan, by adjusting observed infection prevalence for incomplete case detection coverage and diagnostic inaccuracy. Findings: The revised best estimate for the mean duration of stage 2 is 252 days (95% CI 171–399), about half of our initial best estimate, giving a total mean duration of untreated gambiense HAT infection of approximately 2 years and 2 months. Conclusions: Our new estimate provides improved information on the transmission dynamics of this neglected tropical disease in Uganda and South Sudan. We stress that there remains considerable variability around the estimated mean values, and that one must be cautious in applying these results to other foci

Omitting edema measurement: how much acute malnutrition are we missing?

BACKGROUND: Acute malnutrition is a major public health issue in low-income countries. It includes both wasting and edematous malnutrition, but the terms wasting and acute malnutrition are often used interchangeably. Little is known about the burden of edematous malnutrition, and few large-scale surveys measure it. OBJECTIVE: Most acute malnutrition might be captured by the measurement of wasting alone, but this is unknown. This article aims to fill this gap. DESIGN: This article presents a secondary data analysis of 852 nutrition cross-sectional survey data sets of children aged 6-59 mo. The data sets assembled included surveys from East, West, South, and Central Africa; the Caribbean; and Asia. The overlap between edematous malnutrition and wasting was assessed, and the impact of including/excluding edema on acute malnutrition prevalence estimates was evaluated. RESULTS: The prevalence of edematous malnutrition varied from 0% to 32.9%, and children were more likely to have bilateral edema in Central and South Africa (OR: 4; 95% CI: 2.8, 5.6). A large proportion of children with edematous malnutrition were not wasted [62% and 66% based on midupper arm circumference (MUAC) and weight-for-height (WFH), respectively], and most were not severely wasted (83% and 86% based on MUAC and WFH, respectively). When wasting and global acute malnutrition prevalence estimates as well as severe wasting and severe acute malnutrition prevalence estimates overall were compared, the differences between estimates were small (median of 0.0% and mean of 0.3% based on WFH and MUAC for global estimates and slightly higher median of 0.1% and mean of 0.4% based on MUAC and WFH, respectively, for the severe forms), but the picture was different at the regional level. CONCLUSIONS: The terms acute malnutrition and wasting should not be used interchangeably. The omission of the measurement of edema can have important repercussions, especially at the nutrition program level

Disparities in health financing allocation among infectious diseases in Ebola virus disease (EVD)-affected countries, 2005–2017

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks impacted the population health due to over-stretched health systems and disrupted essential health services. Despite a call to achieve equal financial allocation depending on public health needs, there has been scant examination of the fair-ness of investment among infectious diseases. This study analyzes the extent to which equitable development assistance for health (DAH) has been provided in accordance with disease burden in EVD-affected countries. Estimates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017 and DAH Database 1990–2019 in 2005–2017 were analyzed by disease category: vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and EVD. HIV/AIDS generally recorded higher ratios of DAH per DALYs (DAH/DALYs). Malaria and tuberculosis showed different trends by country, and VPDs generally presented lower ratios. In West Africa in 2013–2016, DAH/DALYs surged in EVD and fluctuated in HIV/AIDS and malaria. Tuberculosis and VPDs consistently recorded lower ratios. To achieve the risk reduction during and after health emergencies, optimal funding allocation between diseases based on the disease burden is warranted in the pre-emergency period, along with measurement of immediate health needs of populations in real-time during an emergency

Towards systematic evaluation of epidemic responses during humanitarian crises: a scoping review of existing public health evaluation frameworks.

Epidemics continue to pose a significant public health threat to populations in low and middle-income countries. However, little is known about the appropriateness and performance of response interventions in such settings. We undertook a rapid scoping review of public health evaluation frameworks for emergency settings in order to judge their suitability for assessing epidemic response. Our search identified a large variety of frameworks. However, very few are suitable for framing the response to an epidemic, or its evaluation. We propose a generic epidemic framework that draws on elements of existing frameworks. We believe that this framework may potentially be of use in closing the gap between increasing global epidemic risk and the ability to respond effectively

Rural electrification in central america and east africa, two case studies of sustainable microgrids

This paper deals with the electrification of rural villages in developing countries using Sustainable Energy Systems. The rural electrification feasibility study is done using Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable PRO (HOMER PRO). The HOMER PRO energy modelling software is an optimization software improved by U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. It helps in designing, comparing and optimizing the design of power generation technologies. In this paper, two rural electrification case studies are modelled and analysed using HOMER PRO. Technical and economic evaluation criteria are applied to study the feasibility of a micro-hydro plant in El Díptamo (Honduras), and a hybrid plant composed of photovoltaic module arrays, Diesel generators, and flow batteries, in a small island on Victoria Lake. For both cases, we show the results of the studies of the daily and yearly loads, of the resources available in the area and the economic evaluation of the chosen plants configuration

Is Middle-Upper Arm Circumference "normally" distributed? Secondary data analysis of 852 nutrition surveys.

BACKGROUND: Wasting is a major public health issue throughout the developing world. Out of the 6.9 million estimated deaths among children under five annually, over 800,000 deaths (11.6 %) are attributed to wasting. Wasting is quantified as low Weight-For-Height (WFH) and/or low Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) (since 2005). Many statistical procedures are based on the assumption that the data used are normally distributed. Analyses have been conducted on the distribution of WFH but there are no equivalent studies on the distribution of MUAC. METHODS: This secondary data analysis assesses the normality of the MUAC distributions of 852 nutrition cross-sectional survey datasets of children from 6 to 59 months old and examines different approaches to normalise "non-normal" distributions. RESULTS: The distribution of MUAC showed no departure from a normal distribution in 319 (37.7 %) distributions using the Shapiro-Wilk test. Out of the 533 surveys showing departure from a normal distribution, 183 (34.3 %) were skewed (D'Agostino test) and 196 (36.8 %) had a kurtosis different to the one observed in the normal distribution (Anscombe-Glynn test). Testing for normality can be sensitive to data quality, design effect and sample size. Out of the 533 surveys showing departure from a normal distribution, 294 (55.2 %) showed high digit preference, 164 (30.8 %) had a large design effect, and 204 (38.3 %) a large sample size. Spline and LOESS smoothing techniques were explored and both techniques work well. After Spline smoothing, 56.7 % of the MUAC distributions showing departure from normality were "normalised" and 59.7 % after LOESS. Box-Cox power transformation had similar results on distributions showing departure from normality with 57 % of distributions approximating "normal" after transformation. Applying Box-Cox transformation after Spline or Loess smoothing techniques increased that proportion to 82.4 and 82.7 % respectively. CONCLUSION: This suggests that statistical approaches relying on the normal distribution assumption can be successfully applied to MUAC. In light of this promising finding, further research is ongoing to evaluate the performance of a normal distribution based approach to estimating the prevalence of wasting using MUAC

Anthropometric indices and measures to assess change in the nutritional status of a population: a systematic literature review

Background: Undernutrition is a major public health issue highlighted by the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals, with target 2.2 aiming to 'end hunger' by 2030. On-going surveillance is essential detecting nutritional stress in a population and is key to planning consequent interventions. Whilst methodologies of nutritional surveillance systems vary across different settings, organisations and even within the same country, the direct evidence-base underpinning these practices is limited. This paper aims therefore to: 1) compare the performance of different anthropometric indices/measurements for detecting change in the nutritional situation at population level; 2) discuss their properties and appropriateness for use in a surveillance system. Methods: This systematic literature review considered peer-reviewed and grey literature. Evidence was compiled from standard electronic databases, websites and snowballing. The search was performed in November 2015 by a single reviewer using the following terms to capture two concepts: 1) Undernutrition and 2) Nutrition surveillance. The search was limited to children under five and the period considered started in 1980. Languages included English and French. Articles had to assess whether the changes or trend observed at population level were statistically significant. All study designs were included. Results: A total of 4563 articles were retrieved from the electronic database search. Most articles (3137, 89%) were not directly relevant based on title and abstract; 39 articles were reviewed in full. A total of 17 articles met the inclusion criteria and an additional 4 papers were added after snowballing. A number of measures and indices such as weight, weight-for-height/length, triceps skinfold and middle-upper arm circumference performed well in the detection of short term changes in the nutritional situation of a population. Height/Length-for-age responded the most to long term change. Applying a standard set of criteria (simplicity, acceptability, cost, independence of age, reliability and accuracy) to determine which is the most appropriate measure or index identified middle-upper arm circumference as the one with the greatest net benefits. Conclusions: Limited available evidence suggests that mid-upper arm circumference is the best measure to detect short term changes in the nutritional state of a population: this should receive higher priority in surveillance systems

Implementation and Utilisation of Community-based Mortality Surveillance: a case study from Chad

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prospective surveillance is a recognised approach for measuring death rates in humanitarian emergencies. However, there is limited evidence on how such surveillance should optimally be implemented and on how data are actually used by agencies. This case study investigates the implementation and utilisation of mortality surveillance data by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in eastern Chad. We aimed to describe and analyse the community-based mortality surveillance system, trends in mortality data and the utilisation of these data to guide MSF’s operational response.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The case study included 5 MSF sites including 2 refugee camps and 3 camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs). Data were obtained through key informant interviews and systematic review of MSF operational reports from 2004–2008.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mortality data were collected using community health workers (CHWs). Mortality generally decreased progressively. In Farchana and Breidjing refugee camps, crude death rates (CDR) decreased from 0.9 deaths per 10,000 person-days in 2004 to 0.2 in 2008 and from 0.7 to 0.1, respectively. In Gassire, Ade and Kerfi IDP camps, CDR decreased from 0.4 to 0.04, 0.3 to 0.04 and 1.0 to 0.3. Death rates among children under 5 years (U5DR) followed similar trends. CDR and U5DR crossed emergency thresholds in one site, Kerfi, where CDR rapidly rose to 2.1 and U5DR to 7.9 in July 2008 before rapidly decreasing to below emergency levels by September 2008.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Mortality data were used regularly to monitor population health status and on two occasions as a tool for advocacy. Lessons learned included the need for improved population estimates and standardized reporting procedures for improved data quality and dissemination; the importance of a simple and flexible model for data collection; and greater investment in supervising CHWs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This model of community based mortality surveillance can be adapted and used by humanitarian agencies working in complex settings. Humanitarian organisations should however endeavour to disseminate routinely collected mortality data and improve utilisation of data for operational planning and evaluation. Accurate population estimation continues to be a challenge, limiting the accuracy of mortality estimates.</p

A novel, efficient method for estimating the prevalence of acute malnutrition in resource-constrained and crisis-affected settings: A simulation study.

INTRODUCTION: The assessment of the prevalence of acute malnutrition in children under five is widely used for the detection of emergencies, planning interventions, advocacy, and monitoring and evaluation. This study examined PROBIT Methods which convert parameters (mean and standard deviation (SD)) of a normally distributed variable to a cumulative probability below any cut-off to estimate acute malnutrition in children under five using Middle-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC). METHODS: We assessed the performance of: PROBIT Method I, with mean MUAC from the survey sample and MUAC SD from a database of previous surveys; and PROBIT Method II, with mean and SD of MUAC observed in the survey sample. Specifically, we generated sub-samples from 852 survey datasets, simulating 100 surveys for eight sample sizes. Overall the methods were tested on 681 600 simulated surveys. RESULTS: PROBIT methods relying on sample sizes as small as 50 had better performance than the classic method for estimating and classifying the prevalence of acute malnutrition. They had better precision in the estimation of acute malnutrition for all sample sizes and better coverage for smaller sample sizes, while having relatively little bias. They classified situations accurately for a threshold of 5% acute malnutrition. Both PROBIT methods had similar outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: PROBIT Methods have a clear advantage in the assessment of acute malnutrition prevalence based on MUAC, compared to the classic method. Their use would require much lower sample sizes, thus enable great time and resource savings and permit timely and/or locally relevant prevalence estimates of acute malnutrition for a swift and well-targeted response